Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 17.818422 20.315577 23.012914 26.140029 29.662612 33.504886 38.010394
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 14.006569 17.344915 21.231755 26.079732 31.952323 38.823134 47.458282
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 12.252996 15.992323 20.557794 26.520063 34.077173 43.310844 55.420658
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 10.795247 14.764654 19.819557 26.694219 35.761015 47.266524 62.924257
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 9.531325 13.581927 18.933675 26.473400 36.765285 50.258033 69.211898
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 8.660800 12.808306 18.473203 26.711196 38.307646 53.958555 76.571833
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 8.129349 12.433735 18.492104 27.557430 40.675556 58.845378 85.764571
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 7.347106 11.609781 17.786144 27.285743 41.401273 61.443677 91.855562
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 6.371360 10.398199 16.402496 25.890820 40.360568 61.410057 94.102784
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 6.036360 10.135081 16.402163 26.542966 42.361803 65.863643 103.109415
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 5.748326 9.915699 16.441710 27.240832 44.450437 70.530466 112.653004
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 5.297201 9.388565 15.950561 27.054999 45.131691 73.070304 119.049918
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 4.809731 8.767673 15.274731 26.543551 45.293928 74.865141 124.476185
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 4.469913 8.369769 14.934178 26.554420 46.294460 78.025854 132.233627
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.238321 8.138645 14.850441 26.977737 47.981106 82.347308 142.050885
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.987183 7.849174 14.641127 27.162972 49.264144 86.058798 151.037338
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.694613 7.456525 14.217780 26.935771 49.809489 88.550283 158.083942
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 3.498148 7.227230 14.067551 27.178388 51.176692 92.478185 167.734136
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 3.402647 7.184136 14.252707 28.038170 53.683053 98.472580 181.220925
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 3.163602 6.836722 13.842838 27.762143 54.106562 100.843567 188.467326
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 2.804813 6.215984 12.865981 26.344308 52.331491 99.214956 188.505927
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 2.720468 6.154420 12.968995 27.007170 54.484186 104.733845 201.659922
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 2.645575 6.106193 13.093542 27.716468 56.758278 110.572141 215.654483